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US stock market has just closed for the day with all major indexes again taking big dives: Dow Index is down by 387 points (a single-day 2.9% drop, 2^nd worst of this year), S&P 500 down 44 points (3% drop), and NASDAQ down 57 points (2.2%). In the rest of the world, London’s FTSE Index was down 1.9%, Tokyo’s Nikkei up 0.8%, India’s SENSEX down 1.4%, and Australia’s ASX up 1.1%. These are the times when many investors begin to ask if they should jack up their stock holding in foreign markets. After all, the domestic and foreign markets rarely move in lockstep, and having a chunk of my asset allocated to foreign stocks should minimize any impact of a major domestic slump.
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Well, there is the handy “Rule of 72″, which says the number of years it takes for the money to double at x% yearly (compounded) rate is roughly 72 divided by x. For example, if you have $10,000 in a money market fund earning a sedate 5%, it will grow to $20,000 in about 14 (=72/5) years. By contrast, if the same $10,000 is invested fully in a stock fund that appreciates at a healthy 10% (not a fairytale), doubling your kitty should take only 7 years.
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Now that the stock market has gotten into another volatile phase – swinging up and down in sync with jittery investor sentiment – the dooms-day forecasters and soothsayers alike have started coming out of the woodwork. There are as many advisers warning us “sell-off time is NOW”, as others saying “the bull market is still on, even though bull run may be over”.

This is also the time when a few market timers catch their lucky break. If stock prices fluctuate without any apparent regularity, by pure chance anyone can succeed once in a while in offloading just before a crash. But market almost always recovers as rapidly as it falls. Kiplinger recently noted that a timer has to be lucky not once, but twice – to get out at a high, and also to get in at the next low. Even that kind of luck is occasionally possible, but consistent market timing would be a rare feat indeed!

Last week’s CNN Money magazine ran a short feature on online banking, which seems to be the order of the day. Gone are the snaky queues at our neighborhood branch, often with a growling stomach yearning for a delayed lunch. This visual is still futuristic, but the day may not be that far away, with virtual banks sprouting up everywhere like wild mushrooms.
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